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The value of one month ahead inflow forecasting in the operation of a hydroelectric reservoir

University of British Columbia

The research assesses the value of forecast information in operating a hydro-electric project with a storage reservoir. The benefits are the increased hydro power production, when forecasts are available. The value of short term forecasts is determined by comparing results obtained with the use of one month ahead perfect predictions to those obtained without forecasts but a knowledge of the statistics of the possible flows. The benefits with perfect forecasts provide an upper limit to the benefits which could be obtained with actual less than perfect forecasts. The effects of generating capacity and flow patterns are also discussed. The operation of a hypothetical but typical project is modelled using stochastic dynamic programming. A simple model of streamflow is formulated based on the historical statistics ( means and deviations). The conclusions are: The inflow forecasts can improve the operational efficiency of the reservoir considerably because of the reduction in forecasting uncertainty. The maximum release constraints affect the additional expected values. The benefits from the forecasts increase as the discharge limits reduce. Flow predictions in the high flow season are most valuable when the runoff in that time period dominates the annual flow pattern. However flow predictions at other times of the year also have value.

Text

2010-11-25

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http://hdl.handle.net/2429/30145

Civil Engineering

University of British Columbia

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