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Combining measurements with deterministic model outputs: predicting ground-level ozone

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Title: Combining measurements with deterministic model outputs: predicting ground-level ozone
Author: Liu, Zhong
Degree Doctor of Philosophy - PhD
Program Statistics
Copyright Date: 2007
Publicly Available in cIRcle 2008-02-15
Subject Keywords spatial-temoral models; Bayesian Melding; deterministic models
Abstract: The main topic of this thesis is how to combine model outputs from deterministic models with measurements from monitoring stations for air pollutants or other meteorological variables. We consider two different approaches to address this particular problem. The first approach is by using the Bayesian Melding (BM) model proposed by Fuentes and Raftery (2005). We successfully implement this model and conduct several simulation studies to examine the performance of this model in different scenarios. We also apply the melding model to the ozone data to show the importance of using the Bayesian melding model to calibrate the model outputs. That is, to adjust the model outputs for the prediction of measurements. Due to the Bayesian framework of the melding model, we can extend it to incorporate other components such as ensemble models, reversible jump MCMC for variable selection. However, the BM model is purely a spatial model and we generally have to deal with space-time dataset in practice. The deficiency of the BM approach leads us to a second approach, an alternative to the BM model, which is a linear mixed model (different from most linear mixed models, the random effects being spatially correlated) with temporally and spatially correlated residuals. We assume the spatial and temporal correlation are separable and use an AR process to model the temporal correlation. We also develop a multivariate version of this model. Both the melding model and linear mixed model are Bayesian hierarchical models, which can better estimate the uncertainties of the estimates and predictions.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/2429/362

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