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Managing water in Jordan : an interactive system dynamics simulation approach Shawwash, Ziad K. Elias
Abstract
Jordan now stands at the door step of a major water crisis. The country does not have enough water for its desired standard of living; nor for the additional jobs and income that should accompany the development of industry, services, and tourism; nor for more irrigation to expand food output for domestic consumption and export earnings. Besides water scarcity and rapid population growth, Jordan faces severe water problems and needs new water policies and management methodologies to achieve sustainable development of its water resources. Problems include overdrafting and contamination of aquifers, uneven distribution of supplies, shared water resources, and high cost of development of new supplies. On top of these problems, water managers and current water management practices have not evolved to meet the present and future challenges facing the water sector in Jordan. Management practices have traditionally relied on developing additional water supplies, while financial and water allocation practices relied on conventional management approaches. This thesis recognized that an appropriate water management framework is urgently needed to prevent the social and economic disruptions that could accompany the anticipated water crisis. The thesis attempted to devise a water management framework and a testing platform for Jordan's alternative water management strategies. A review of historic developments in water management approaches has led to a proposed intermediate water management framework aimed at initiating an experimental process with the objective of reaching a suitable long-term water management framework for Jordan. The proposed intermediate framework consists of four components: a set of water sector' objectives governing the day-to-day operations as well as water management strategies; a unified policy and decision analysis framework; a unified criteria for the evaluation of alternative water management strategies; and a System Dynamics approach for problem identification and the analysis of change. This study focused on the last two components of the intermediate framework: a unified criteria and the System Dynamics approach. An interactive System Dynamics simulation system portraying the complex structure of the water sector provided a platform for "testing" alternative water management strategies in Jordan. A collection of important outputs from the simulation system was used to formulate "Performance Indicators." One or more of these indicators could serve to measure the achievement of the objectives of the water sector. The proposed intermediate water management framework, and the interactive System Dynamics simulation system, described in this thesis, are believed to go a long way towards improving water management practices in Jordan. The basic methodologies underlying these management techniques are not too difficult to understand. The availability of interactive computer software packages, such as STELLA II, could prove to be of great value to enhance the ability of water managers and decision makers to take better decisions and to better understand and manage this complex resource in an efficient, survivable and sustainable way. This study provides four specific suggestions for follow up work needed to improve the simulation system: uncertainty analysis; expansion and verification of the simulation system; the dynamics of decision-making; and, the use of interactive simulation environments in water management.
Item Metadata
Title |
Managing water in Jordan : an interactive system dynamics simulation approach
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Creator | |
Publisher |
University of British Columbia
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Date Issued |
1995
|
Description |
Jordan now stands at the door step of a major water crisis. The country does not have
enough water for its desired standard of living; nor for the additional jobs and income that should
accompany the development of industry, services, and tourism; nor for more irrigation to expand food
output for domestic consumption and export earnings. Besides water scarcity and rapid population
growth, Jordan faces severe water problems and needs new water policies and management
methodologies to achieve sustainable development of its water resources. Problems include
overdrafting and contamination of aquifers, uneven distribution of supplies, shared water resources,
and high cost of development of new supplies. On top of these problems, water managers and current
water management practices have not evolved to meet the present and future challenges facing the
water sector in Jordan. Management practices have traditionally relied on developing additional
water supplies, while financial and water allocation practices relied on conventional management
approaches.
This thesis recognized that an appropriate water management framework is urgently needed
to prevent the social and economic disruptions that could accompany the anticipated water crisis.
The thesis attempted to devise a water management framework and a testing platform for Jordan's
alternative water management strategies. A review of historic developments in water management
approaches has led to a proposed intermediate water management framework aimed at initiating an
experimental process with the objective of reaching a suitable long-term water management
framework for Jordan. The proposed intermediate framework consists of four components: a set of
water sector' objectives governing the day-to-day operations as well as water management strategies; a unified policy and decision analysis framework; a unified criteria for the evaluation of alternative
water management strategies; and a System Dynamics approach for problem identification and the
analysis of change.
This study focused on the last two components of the intermediate framework: a unified
criteria and the System Dynamics approach. An interactive System Dynamics simulation system
portraying the complex structure of the water sector provided a platform for "testing" alternative
water management strategies in Jordan. A collection of important outputs from the simulation system
was used to formulate "Performance Indicators." One or more of these indicators could serve to
measure the achievement of the objectives of the water sector.
The proposed intermediate water management framework, and the interactive System
Dynamics simulation system, described in this thesis, are believed to go a long way towards
improving water management practices in Jordan. The basic methodologies underlying these
management techniques are not too difficult to understand. The availability of interactive computer
software packages, such as STELLA II, could prove to be of great value to enhance the ability of
water managers and decision makers to take better decisions and to better understand and manage
this complex resource in an efficient, survivable and sustainable way.
This study provides four specific suggestions for follow up work needed to improve the
simulation system: uncertainty analysis; expansion and verification of the simulation system; the
dynamics of decision-making; and, the use of interactive simulation environments in water
management.
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Extent |
33023484 bytes
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Genre | |
Type | |
File Format |
application/pdf
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Language |
eng
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Date Available |
2009-01-28
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Provider |
Vancouver : University of British Columbia Library
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Rights |
For non-commercial purposes only, such as research, private study and education. Additional conditions apply, see Terms of Use https://open.library.ubc.ca/terms_of_use.
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DOI |
10.14288/1.0050333
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URI | |
Degree | |
Program | |
Affiliation | |
Degree Grantor |
University of British Columbia
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Graduation Date |
1995-11
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Campus | |
Scholarly Level |
Graduate
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Aggregated Source Repository |
DSpace
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Item Media
Item Citations and Data
Rights
For non-commercial purposes only, such as research, private study and education. Additional conditions apply, see Terms of Use https://open.library.ubc.ca/terms_of_use.