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UBC Theses and Dissertations
Applications of fuzzy set theory in reservoir operations Campbell, Paul Francis
Abstract
Attempts to maximize benefits from hydroelectric reservoirs with mathematical models have been a focus of study for water resource specialists. As increasingly complex models are developed to more closely imitate reality, their usefulness may paradoxically diminish since reservoir operators are less apt to fully understand the models. This results in a general lack of acceptance of mathematical reservoir models amongst the people they were originally developed to serve. Also, the stochastic nature of modelling a system influenced by climatic and economic factors such as a hydroelectric reservoir puts an upper limit on the attainable accuracy of a model. This thesis suggests that a method based on fuzzy set theory may provide a more readily understandable model that recognizes the inherent uncertainties in reservoir modelling. Heuristics or “rules of thumb” are used to simulate operation of a reservoir subject to uncertain inflows and changing hydroelectric power values. This system describes the operation of the reservoir in vague terms such as: “IF predicted inflow is medium-low AND reservoir volume is high THEN suggested outflow is ...“. These rules can be obtained directly from an experienced operator; from analysis of historical data; from data generated by a mathematical simulation of the reservoir or any combination of all three. This thesis illustrates the development and use of a simple fuzzy rulebase for a single hydroelectric reservoir. The rulebase is formed from data generated by a mathematical optimization model (dynamic programming) of the reservoir that simulates several years of operation with random inputs.
Item Metadata
| Title |
Applications of fuzzy set theory in reservoir operations
|
| Creator | |
| Publisher |
University of British Columbia
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| Date Issued |
1993
|
| Description |
Attempts to maximize benefits from hydroelectric reservoirs with
mathematical models have been a focus of study for water resource specialists.
As increasingly complex models are developed to more closely imitate reality,
their usefulness may paradoxically diminish since reservoir operators are less
apt to fully understand the models. This results in a general lack of acceptance
of mathematical reservoir models amongst the people they were originally
developed to serve. Also, the stochastic nature of modelling a system
influenced by climatic and economic factors such as a hydroelectric reservoir
puts an upper limit on the attainable accuracy of a model. This thesis suggests
that a method based on fuzzy set theory may provide a more readily
understandable model that recognizes the inherent uncertainties in reservoir
modelling. Heuristics or “rules of thumb” are used to simulate operation of a
reservoir subject to uncertain inflows and changing hydroelectric power values.
This system describes the operation of the reservoir in vague terms such as: “IF
predicted inflow is medium-low AND reservoir volume is high THEN suggested
outflow is ...“. These rules can be obtained directly from an experienced
operator; from analysis of historical data; from data generated by a
mathematical simulation of the reservoir or any combination of all three.
This thesis illustrates the development and use of a simple fuzzy rulebase
for a single hydroelectric reservoir. The rulebase is formed from data generated
by a mathematical optimization model (dynamic programming) of the reservoir
that simulates several years of operation with random inputs.
|
| Extent |
9201406 bytes
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| Genre | |
| Type | |
| File Format |
application/pdf
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| Language |
eng
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| Date Available |
2009-02-23
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| Provider |
Vancouver : University of British Columbia Library
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| Rights |
For non-commercial purposes only, such as research, private study and education. Additional conditions apply, see Terms of Use https://open.library.ubc.ca/terms_of_use.
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| DOI |
10.14288/1.0050434
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| URI | |
| Degree | |
| Program | |
| Affiliation | |
| Degree Grantor |
University of British Columbia
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| Graduation Date |
1994-05
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| Campus | |
| Scholarly Level |
Graduate
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| Aggregated Source Repository |
DSpace
|
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Rights
For non-commercial purposes only, such as research, private study and education. Additional conditions apply, see Terms of Use https://open.library.ubc.ca/terms_of_use.