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UBC Theses and Dissertations

Model for predicting net revenue of harvesting operations in coastal second-growth stands Pavel, Mihai

Abstract

As forest harvesting shifts from old-growth to second-growth stands, profitability is becoming an important issue. In a cooperative project involving Forest Engineering Research Institute of Canada (FERIC), University of British Columbia (UBC) and Canadian Forest Service - Pacific Forestry Center, a model was developed to predict economics of second-growth harvests. The final result that can be obtained with the model is the net revenue produced after logging a second-growth stand. This is computed as a function of stand characteristics, company product requirements and harvest equipment used. Additional results computed by the model are total volume, distribution of volume by species and by sort, and estimate of time to harvest a block. The model is a Windows1 based program, written in Visual Basic 3.0 using some third party Visual Basic Extensions. The final product is a program that makes data input very easy. It ships on two diskettes with a set up kit, making installation simple. The model was tested on two second-growth settings close to Powell River, B.C. In both cases the results were very good, value predicted by the model being within 3% of the actual value obtained. More testing is underway and considering input received from industry, some improvements are being considered. The objective of this project and of the model, which is the final product of the project, is to demonstrate the potential benefits to users of this type of management tool and to serve as a medium term decision support tool that will predict economics of second-growth harvests. 1 Windows and Visual Basic 3.0 are trademarks of Microsoft Corporation.

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